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Gambling: The Fights That Haunt Us #2

Betting on a fighter with who has something of a ‘suspect’ fight IQ is a dangerous game. You know they should win because of their wrestling, but then they flip the script and decide that they want to be a striker, shit hits the fan. You find yourself yelling at your TV, begging them to shoot for a takedown to end this god-damn fight.

That being said, it’s even worse to discover a fighters fight IQ is terrible during the fight. It’s like adopting a dog from the pound, and halfway home you realize it meows like a cat.

I didn’t sign up for this,” you sadly mumble to yourself.

On this weeks Fights We Regret, we enter the bantamweight division to discuss the IQ of a certain Team Alpha Male fighter. Any guesses?

I hopped on the Cody “No Love” Garbrandt train after he essentially murdered Augusto Mendes way back in 2016. After he took Thomas Almeida’s head clean off, the hype certainly seemed real; and from a gambling perspective, the (+160) on Garbrandt had great value. He then went on to have one of the most dominant performances in UFC history as he outclassed Dominick Cruz for 5 rounds.

Cruz was known for his weird style and awkward footwork. Back then Cruz was the king of the bantamweight division and a enigmatic puzzle that basically no-one was capable of solving. Not only did Garbrandt figure out the puzzle, he punked Cruz at his own striking game and appeared faster and stronger. It was 25 minutes of pure domination, an as the (+195) underdog, No Love cashed for us once again.

After dismantling Cruz and claiming the belt, Cody proved he was not just a heavy handed, wild, big shot or bust kind of guy…

……right?

SO FUCKING WRONG.

Cody goes on his first title defense against long time rival and former Team Alpha Male teammate TJ Dillashaw. Because no one cares about TAM’s drama, we won’t be touching on that today. The lead up was full of unintelligent shit talking and cringeworthy moments. Cody caught TJ at the end of the first, only to go into the second round with his hands down and get knocked out.

Cody took the loss and claimed post fight that he simply made a ‘tactical error’; he understood what needed to be done to get his belt back, and he would be back faster and better.

Like a fool, I believed him. Cody got the rematch with TJ at UFC 227, where we all realized his fight IQ was actually, complete, dog shit.

Cody Garbrandt vs. TJ Dillashaw 2

As previously stated, I refuse to discuss the Team Alpha Male drama, so I will simply say the lead up was basically the same as the first fight, just worse. Cody has never come across as the sharpest tool in the shed, and everyone knows TJ is a fookin snake. Awkward arguments, insults that made no sense, incomplete english sentences, we had all seen this movie before.

The line ended up closing for Cody at around (+115), while the new champ Dillashaw was the (-120) favorite. Here are a few thoughts I had going into this fight:

“There is no way he goes in there with his hands down again.”

“I can’t see a scenario where he makes the same mistake again.

“I mean he said he fixed the issues, no way he gets knocked out with his hands down again.

Sense a pattern? Yeah…

Cody decided to keep his hands down again, resulting in a first round KO and his second straight devastating loss. The rivalry was over. Money was lost.

Cody went on to take my money for the last time by getting knocked out by Pedro Munhoz at UFC 225, where he swung with zero defense and (can you guess it?) kept his hands down. Frustrated was an understatement. On paper, 2+2=4, but when Cody is holding the pen it somehow equals 7. So much talent, speed, and power only to continue to go out there and make zero sense in the octagon. What a shame.UPDATE: This post was written a few days prior to TJ pissing hot, which has given me time to reevaluate my losses. The conclusion? I want my money back.

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